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miaowang123 Jan 11
One of the e-mails I receive frequently about the application of advanced statistics in professional hockey regards “PDO”, and why the metric is so often referenced when discussing outlier performance. Cheap Air Jordan 4 Australia . PDO is nothing more than a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage, expressed in thousands. It’s a simple calculation, but imperative when conducting analysis and forecasting future outcomes. The theory behind PDO is that shooting percentage is primarily luck-driven, and save-percentage is primarily luck-driven, and at the team-level, teams will consistently regress towards this 1,000 (i.e., the league average) number. Teams with extremely high PDO’s, say 1020 and above, are great bets to regress unfavorably. Teams with extremely low PDO’s, say 980 and below, are great bets to regress favorably. From time to time, we’ll see small deviations in genuinely great and genuinely terrible teams. But in most cases, it simply pays to (a) be skeptical that any percentage-fueled run is real; (b) focus on winning the shot-differential battle, because shot-differentials will predict future outcome far better than past shooting and save percentages will. PDO was at the heart of the 2013-2014 Toronto Maple Leafs debate – a team whose predictable and catastrophic end-of-year collapse pushed professional hockey into the analytics era. A bunch of smart hires were made by organizations around the league, and it seemed as though the debate over percentage-fueled runs and team-level shot quality myths were put to bed. Still, there seems to be some lingering doubt. Many, many words have been spilled about the 2013-2014 Colorado Avalanche, a team that – despite endless precaution – decided to double-down on mythological shot quality, ignoring innumerable red flags in the process. It wasn’t just the Avalanche organization buying stock, either. Bovada, an online sportsbook with a vested interest in outcomes, opened with Colorado as a 98.5 point team. On the other hand, that same online sportsbook opened up with the New Jersey Devils as an 83.5 point team – 15-points less than Colorado. Are these two teams fifteen points different? It’s possible the answer is yes, but not in the way you’d think. First, let’s look at each team’s ability to control play via Corsi%, starting with game one of last season and running it through today’s data. We’ll use a 10-game rolling average to smooth out results. Not a whole lot has changed from last year to this year, which is signified by the vertical line at the game 82 mark. New Jersey has consistently earned a better percentage of the shot-share, never once dipping below the 50% threshold over any 10-game stretch. Colorado, on the other hand, has been consistently subpar at controlling play. Other than a five-game window (31-36), they’ve been regularly under 50%. If you looked solely at the possession numbers and were aware of the tight correlation between controlling the puck and winning in today’s NHL, you would think that New Jersey was a playoff caliber team. Colorado? A lottery team. But, the hockey gods are funny sometimes. We know Colorado’s off to a horrendous and predictable 3-6-5 start, but the possession numbers don’t explain why things suddenly went south. Nor does it explain why New Jersey – who was a possession world-beater last year – failed to make the post-season. So, let’s go to the percentages, captured by the aforementioned PDO. Again, it’s more or less a measure of “puck luck”, and the likelihood of a team’s number regressing to 1,000 is extremely strong. We’ll roll Colorado and New Jersey’s PDO over 10-games to again smooth things a bit. Colorado sat well above the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. New Jersey sat well below the 1,000 mark for the vast majority of last season. Whereas Colorado (8.07% Sh%, .931 SV%) saw all of the bounces at 5-on-5, New Jersey (7.12 Sh%, .914 SV%) did not. I think the dividing vertical lines on both of these graphs are amazing in the sense that they capture precisely what we’re looking for in terms of forecasting future outcome. When it came to a team’s ability to control play at 5-on-5 via Corsi%, both teams in 2014-2015 are reasonably near their respective 2013-2014 performance. This is because puck possession is repeatable. On the PDO graph, it’s the total opposite. The shooting and save percentages have flipped entirely, which is consistent with what we have seen in PDO volatility across many different teams over many, many years. New Jersey may have made the right move going from Martin Brodeur to Cory Schneider, but a goaltending switch wouldn’t explain how the team jumped from 26th to 14th in shooting percentage seemingly overnight. Randomness, of course, would. Combine that with generally out-possessing the opposition, and you have a respectable 6-4-2 record. On the Colorado side, the team has seen somewhat unfavorable percentage luck, but it’s far closer to the league averages than anything the team experienced last year. And, of course, the team is still getting drilled in the shot department. It’s a combination that generally ends up in fan bases paying attention to the draft lottery, rather than preparing for the post-season. Discount Air Jordan 4 Australia . Wawrinka, who is seeded fourth, is in the top half of the draw with Serbian Novak Djokovic. The Swiss star outlasted Djokovic in a five-set quarterfinal thriller last year and stunned Spaniard Rafael Nadal in the final to capture his first-ever Grand Slam title. Cheap Jordan 4 Australia Sale .Fucale will not only be one of the local boys, he is also a Montreal Canadiens draft pick and will have a huge cheering section when Canada opens the tournament Dec.PHILADELPHIA - Their last names follow them to every rink: Lemieux, MacInnis, Turgeon. Its a blessing and a burden for nine sons of former NHL players who are all expected to be taken in the first four rounds of the draft this weekend. Theres Sam Reinhart, son of Paul; William Nylander, son of Michael; Kasperi Kapanen, son of Sami; Ryan MacInnis, son of Al; Brendan Lemieux, son of Claude; Ryan Donato, son of Ted; Daniel Audette, son of Donald; Dominic Turgeon, son of Pierre; and Josh Wesley, son of Glen. "Its just awesome to see that other players sons are being able to make it because theres a little bit of pressure that comes with playing with the name on your back," Brendan Lemieux said. "And its not very easy, especially when youre playing minor hockey, to do it when your dads there and people see you different just because of who your dad is." So many of these young men shared similar experiences along the way, getting a taste of the NHL lifestyle at practice rinks and in locker-rooms. "I felt like I was kind of born into hockey with my dad," Dominic Turgeon said. "At that very young age I promised myself, thats what I want to do with my life." Along the way, these nine prospects took varying paths. Some followed in their fathers footsteps as closely as possible, while others wanted to do their own thing. "Its just the father-son relationship: that DNAs there," NHL Central Scouting director Dan Marr said. "Sometimes they play opposite styles: Tie and Max Domi, Ryan and Al (MacInnis)." Sam Reinhart, whos expected to be a top-five pick in Friday nights first round, is a centre whereas his father spent 10 NHL seasons as a defenceman. Sam was born six years after Paul retired and didnt really model his game after him as much as naturally pick up some tendencies. "My dad never really taught me a skating side of the game, and I think thats just kind of the way I picked it up and I hear it has been similar to his," Reinhart said. "Ill take that." Kasperi Kapanen, who spent the first 12 years of his life in North America as Sami played for the Carolina Hurricanes and Philadelphia Flyers, considers his dad the biggest influence on his hockey career as his teacher, mentor, trainer and No. 1 fan all at the same time. At one point, Sami and Kasperi were teammates for KalPa Kuopio in Finland, which made him think twice. "Its kind of weird if he has the puck on the ice and youre with him and yell out, Dad!" he said. "And you think about it for a second like, Whats going on?" Kapanens goal is to become at least as good a pro as his dad, if not better. Thats a high bar for Ryan MacInnis, a centre who doesnt have the blistering shot his dad, a Hall of Fame defenceman. Marr told MacInnis to expect questions from interviewing teams about how fast he can shoot. "I have no idea," said MacInnis, who hasnt tested his shot with a radar gun. Ryan MacInnis does have some of his dad in him, or at least the defensive awareness. And scouts watching notice the bloodline. "When you watch him wind up, he has a very similar style of wind-up," said Ross MacLean of the scouting service ISS Hockey. "The mechanical structure of it is very, very similar. Its certainly nowhere near the velocity or the heaviness that his father had, but that might come as he continues to mature." William Nylander, who played youth hockey in the United States before his family moved back to Sweden, will likely need time to mature. He was just five or six yearss old when Michael played for the Washington Capitals and invited Nicklas Backstrom over to their house. Air Jordan 4 Retro Australia. . Lemieux still has good relationships with some of Claudes former teammates, including now-Colorado Avalanche vice-president Joe Sakic and coach Patrick Roy. When Brendan met with the Avalanche, Roy kept quiet and let the rest of his staff do the talking. The pre-draft interview that surprised Lemieux was with the Detroit Red Wings, who his father spent years tormenting as an agitator extraordinaire. Lemieux didnt think it would be a legitimate interview, especially with one of Claudes biggest rivals, Kris Draper, in the room. "I thought they were going to walk in, make a few jokes," Lemieux said. "They were extremely professional, they barely brought it up. I tried to joke about it, they werent even budging. They were extremely serious. I was really impressed. Id have no problem playing in Detroit after that interview, for sure." Thats if the Red Wings want a carbon copy of Claude Lemieux. Brendan knows the game has changed since his father sunk the Stanley Cup to the bottom of the familys pool in 2000 but doesnt want to deviate much from how Claude played. "I think I can still bring that maybe a little bit of old-school sandpaper to a power-forward type role," said Lemieux, who admires Dallas Stars pest Antoine Roussels game. "I think a lot of teams are looking for that edge." Ryan Donato hopes a team is looking for a two-way centre in the vein of Jonathan Toews or Patrice Bergeron. Ted Donato, who will be his sons coach at Harvard next season, mentored Bergeron during his final season with the Boston Bruins, which gave his son someone else to model practice habits on. As far as off-ice habits, Ryan might want to be like his dad. "One of my favourite (stories) was when Ray Bourque got up to go to the bathroom, I guess he took his shoes off for a second and my dad got two lobsters and put them in his shoes and he came back and he put his feet in his shoes and there were lobsters in there," Donato said. Daniel Audette, more of a passer than Donald, who scored 260 goals in his NHL career, has a favourite story about his dad that hell probably tell friends this weekend. "On his draft day when he was 19 years old, he didnt get drafted — he was in the last rounds and he was getting mad," Daniel recalled. "He was throwing chairs in the back of the rink. He really wanted to get drafted, I guess." Finally the Buffalo Sabres took Donald in the ninth round in 1989. Daniel wont have to wait nearly as long, as hes projected to go in the first three rounds. The same goes for Dominic Turgeon, who wants nothing more than to be just like Pierre. "He loves to protect the puck down low," Turgeon said. "Thats what I do all the time in the offensive zone, really use my body to my advantage and drive the puck to the net." But with the name Turgeon comes expectations. Its true for all nine prospects, whether they like it or not. Still, there are plenty of benefits, like making scouts look twice because of the pedigree. When they do, more often than not they can tell theres some extra polish. "They grew up around the game," Marr said. "I think thats the advantage that they have. Ryan MacInnis, hes a professional athlete at 17 years of age, but his hockey sense and his hockey IQ, you can see thats what hes got from his dad, the way he plays the game." --- Follow @SWhyno on Twitter. Wholesale China Jerseys Wholesale Jerseys Wholesale Authentic Jerseys Nike NFL Jerseys China Wholesale Nike Basketball Jerseys Hockey Jerseys China Supply Baseball Jerseys Football Jerseys Sale Authentic College Jerseys MLB Jerseys China Stitched Soccer Jerseys Cheap Jerseys From ChinaCheap Nike Jerseys ' ' '
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